Spanish GP: Red Bull expectations, Mercedes return to form among talking points ahead of European triple-header | F1 News

As Formula 1 prepares for a first triple-header of the 2024 season, Sky Sports F1 assess the key talking points heading into the Spanish Grand Prix.

After four successive grand prix weekends where the result was truly up in the air from the start of first practice to the closing stages of each race, there is great excitement heading into the crux of the season’s European summer swing.

F1 returns to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, with practice getting under way on Friday, before heading to the Red Bull Ring in Austria and to Silverstone for the British Grand Prix on the two weekends that follow.

There is then just one weekend off before back-to-back races follow in Hungary and Belgium to take the season up to the summer break.

After Max Verstappen had won four of the first five races with relative ease, and only been denied a good chance of victory in the one he missed out on due to a reliability problem, a repeat of the Red Bull driver’s historically dominant 2023 campaign appeared to be on the cards.

Instead, Lando Norris broke his F1 duck for McLaren in Miami, and very nearly beat Verstappen again in Imola with a late charge. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc would then finally win his home race in Monaco, before Verstappen produced perhaps his best weekend of the season to win in Montreal when Mercedes suddenly seemed to possess the fastest car.

The upshot is that while Verstappen has a significant 56-point advantage in the drivers’ standings over Leclerc, with Norris a further seven points back, there is a feeling the Dutchman is going to be pushed to the limit on a regular basis throughout the remaining 15 races.

Will Red Bull live up to expectations?

Throughout what has been a relatively tricky last six weeks or so for the reigning constructors’ champions, Red Bull have regularly hinted they expect things to run far more smoothly from this point onwards.

The characteristics of the track in Barcelona, one of F1’s most used circuits for testing, are expected to suit the field-leading aerodynamic efficiency of the RB20.

Miami, Monaco and Montreal each had elements that were more troubling for Red Bull and it therefore was not a huge surprise to see them challenged at those circuits.

Although at the higher-speed Imola, where Red Bull actually brought quite a significant upgrade, it was more of a surprise to see Norris very nearly chase down Verstappen in the final laps.

That race leaves some doubt as to whether Red Bull will enjoy the smooth sailing they hope for on the continent.

Mercedes technical director James Allison in Montreal described the RB20 Imola upgrade as a “downgrade”, which caught the attention of Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, who referenced the remark after Verstappen’s win in Canada.

Not helping Red Bull in recent weeks has been the dismal form of Sergio Perez, who has crashed out of the last two races after leaving himself in a precarious position by failing to advance from Q1 on either occasion.

While Verstappen has shown he is capable of getting the job done alone, Red Bull need Perez to start scoring points again if they are to remain on course for a third successive constructors’ title.

Are Mercedes really back?

The surprise package in Montreal was undoubtedly Mercedes, who came from nowhere to seemingly possess the fastest car in dry conditions.

A series of upgrades came together to catapult George Russell and Lewis Hamilton into the mix, with the former taking pole before a scrappy race saw him miss out on a good opportunity for victory.

While there was frustration from both drivers, Hamilton’s stemming more from a hugely disappointing qualifying display that left him seventh on the grid, being back in contention was great news for the team.

“The truth is over the last three races we have brought so many new parts, visible and invisible to the eye that have contributed milliseconds to more performance,” Mercedes boss Toto Wolff said after the Canadian Grand Prix.

“I think this is where those marginal gains can have that positive effect and that was just a huge effort from the factory, and I think that we have started to get some real motion now.”

His old rival, Horner, said during the weekend that Mercedes have, even during their struggles since 2022 under these regulations, performed well on new or ‘green’ tracks, and appeared hesitant to accept the Silver Arrows’ step forward is as dramatic as it appeared in Montreal.

Are Ferrari or McLaren a bigger title threat?

Even if Mercedes’ progression is as dramatic as they hope, a 177-point deficit to Red Bull in the constructors’ standings means they are not a genuine threat for the constructors’ title.

After a pointless weekend in Canada, Ferrari are 59 points back from the leaders, with McLaren a further 40 points adrift. Those are significant yet recoverable margins, particularly if Perez continues to be a weak link for Red Bull, with Ferrari and McLaren able to rely on each of their drivers for consistent performances.

While Leclerc and team-mate Carlos Sainz have proven they are capable of getting the job done, the concern is whether the SF-24 is good enough to keep them in the mix.

The one-two led by Sainz in Australia provided great promise, but, since then, the only time Ferrari have had the pace to win was at the unique Monaco circuit, where Leclerc converted.

There have been worrying signs either side of that, with engine issues at Imola and Montreal, along with some questionable strategic calls on the latter weekend.

Ferrari boss Frederic Vasseur said, in as many words, that he hoped Ferrari had got all of the negative stuff out of the way in one dreadful Canadian weekend, but it remains to be seen how realistic that is.

In contrast, McLaren have been highly consistent since bringing upgrades in China, having a car finish in the top two of all five races since then. The only win came for Norris in Miami, but the Brit could have easily added to that in Imola, while team-mate Oscar Piastri came very close to denying Leclerc in Monaco.

The MCL38 seems to be in the running for victory every weekend, and, on current form, has the edge over the Ferrari.

Key upgrades set to arrive

The landscape assessed above is of course subject to significant change, given it is at this point of the season that some of the most crucial and impactful car upgrades are introduced.

The process of bringing upgrades is a lengthy one, and therefore it is only around now that learnings from early-season races may be able to be fully addressed.

The top four teams are all expected to bring new parts to Barcelona, which is seen as an ideal track to test upgrades at given its traditional nature.

It is worth remembering that last season Aston Martin were Red Bull’s nearest challengers to about this point of the year, before Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren each took steps forward.

McLaren were languishing towards the rear of the field before their upgrades in Austria last year stunned the grid by immediately transforming them to a regular podium contender.

While more upgrades will come later in the season, this next batch are likely to set the pattern for the rest of the campaign.

The document the FIA releases on Friday – shortly before first practice – detailing all of the upgrades is going to make fascinating reading.

Departing driver drama

With the most fluid F1 grid for a long time seeing many switches between teams at the end of the season, the politics around the treatment of outgoing drivers promises to be a recurring topic of debate.

The highest profile individual changing teams is of course Hamilton, who is leaving Mercedes to join Ferrari.

There have been suggestions in recent weeks that the seven-time world champion has felt a little hard done by, with cryptic comments made in Monaco hinting at suspicion over Russell receiving preferential treatment.

Mercedes have insisted that despite the fact Hamilton is leaving and Russell is staying, they will attempt to give both drivers the best possible car and platform for success at all times.

However, as teams start to look ahead to plans for next season and 2026, when new regulations are incoming, an outgoing driver will not be invited to forward-looking meetings, potentially increasing a feeling of separation.

There is also the case of Esteban Ocon, who in Canada was driving his first race since Alpine had announced he would be leaving the team at the end of the season, with the Frenchman expected to join Haas.

The announcement of Ocon’s exit was preceded by him causing a crash with team-mate Pierre Gasly in Monaco, and there was drama involving the pair once more in Montreal.

This time, in the closing stages of the race, Ocon was asked to move over to allow the faster Gasly through to attack Daniel Ricciardo for P8. He initially told the team to “forget it” before eventually complying halfway through the penultimate lap.

Gasly failed to pass Ricciardo but finished ahead of Ocon, with Alpine later explaining it was “too risky” to swap their cars – running in the two final point-scoring positions – back over with Haas’ Nico Hulkenberg lurking behind.

Sky Sports F1’s live Spanish GP schedule

Thursday June 20

1.30pm: Drivers’ Press Conference

Friday June 21

7.45am: F1 Academy Practice
8:50am: F3 Practice
10am: F2 Practice
12pm: Spanish GP Practice One (session starts at 12.30pm)
1.55pm: F3 Qualifying
2.50pm: F2 Qualifying
3.35pm: Spanish GP Practice Two (session starts at 4pm)
5.25pm: F1 Academy Qualifying
6.15pm: The F1 Show

Saturday June 22
9.35am: F3 Sprint
11:15am: Spanish Romagna GP Practice Three (session starts at 11.30am)
1.10pm: F2 Sprint
2.10pm: Spanish GP Qualifying build-up
3pm: Spanish GP Qualifying
5pm: F1 Academy Race 1

Sunday June 23
7.45am: F1 Academy Race 2
9am: F3 Feature Race
10.30am: F2 Feature Race
12:30pm: Grand Prix Sunday: Spanish GP build-up
2pm: The SPANISH GRAND PRIX
4pm: Chequered Flag: Spanish GP reaction

Formula 1 heads back to Europe as the championship moves on to Barcelona for the Spanish Grand Prix. Watch every session at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya from June 21-23 live on Sky Sports F1. Stream every F1 race and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership – No contract, cancel anytime