……….SUMMARY……….
A substantial violent #severeweather outbreak is looking likely Monday and Tuesday with Tuesday being the biggest day with several strong #tornadoes with a few violent long-tracked #tornadoes, very large #hail, and 75+ mph #damagingwinds. This is now likely to be a regional strong tornado outbreak
……….DETAILED OUTLOOK/DISCUSSION………
Locations: Waco, TX…Tyler, TX…College Station, TX…Lake Charles, LA…Bryan, TX…Houston, TX…Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Plano, TX…Austin, TX…Corpus Christi, TX…Lafayette, LA…Wichita Falls, TX…Denton, TX…Baton Roge, LA….Gonzales, LA….Jackson, MS…..Memphis, TN.
The latest HRRR and NAM 3km model outputs are in pretty good agreement that moisture return amidst a rapidly strengthening LLJ and moisture advection will be surging northward into central TX along an amplified margin of theta-e and strong instability. The latest thinking is that a warm front will be draped from Abilene TX points east into DFW and eastern TX through 18z Monday. after 18z, with the LLJ still on track to increase to around 70 to 80kts, this will lift the warm front into the northernmost portion of TX and move into southwestern AR, as a surface low deepens in northwestern panhandle most TX. South of this front, the airmass will destabilize especially over the Waco, Austin, and Huston Areas first then continue to destabilize by the later afternoon hours into eastern and northeasternmost TX. Now this destabilization will occur during the phase of a strengthening LLJ that’s forecasted to max out to around 75 to 80kts from a southerly direction. This is seen on many soundings in the Waco, TX region of 0-1 km hodographs that are very curved but it also shows some backing in the 3-6 km layer as well. Given though that the backed wind profiles around the 3km layer may not interfere with organizing supercells, these initial supercells are forecasted to be particularly intense and dangerous capable of all severe hazards including 3+ inch hailstones and few significant tornadoes. Further north in the DFW area and southern OK a more elevated setup for supercells may evolve that if any become surfaced based at times, may produce a tornado or two with large hail forecasted that should not reach sig limits. By the evening hours of Monday, east of the I35 corridor in TX, a more substantial severe weather setup may kickoff as the airmass will likely be uncapped east of the line of storms to the west of this region. With some overlapping of extreme shear values of 85+ kts, moderate instability, and very rich low-level could support organized renegade supercells capable of a more significant tornado threat including maybe at least 1 strong long tracked tornado. Should this develop then these storms will move into western LA and weaken some overnight but may still pose a threat for strong tornadoes and large hailstones. Therefore my own outlook will continue to maintain the MDT but had to move it further west into now Waco, TX.
Tuesday’s Substantial Outbreak:
The latest 12z HRRR and NAM 3km denotes an extreme strength LLJ that may max out at 65 to 80kts over central LA into central and southern MS from the SSW direction. At the surface, only modest daytime heating is forecasted but with very moist low-level will contribute MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 j/kg amidst advecting theta-e values into possibly northern MS and Southeastern AR. Shear values are expected to max out to around 85-100kts which is exceptionally extreme for central LA into central and southern MS. 0-1 km SRH is averaging out at around 375 to 600 m2/s2. Hodographs are very enlarged and curved, especially in the lower 2km, which this environment meets the criteria for a regional spaced area from Baton Roge, LA into eastern, central, and southern MS for a prolific tornado outbreak with a few strong to possibly long tracked violent tornadoes. Therefore if this trend can hold into this afternoon then i’m considering a categorial upgrade to a High-risk event with a 30%Sig for Tornadoes, 45%Sig for Winds and, 15%SIG for large hail. But this will be strongly considered with my other forecasters Tony H., Tylerbase, Ethan B., and Fancyhippy.
Forecaster………David Schlotthauer
The next outlook is scheduled for 01z Monday. (6 pm PDT today)
DISCLAIMER:
All of my videos and live streams are for entertainment purposes only and to discuss raw operational model guidance and its ensembles, I’m also comparing models too. So please seek official sources like the National Weather Service or The Weather Channel for more detailed and accurate information.
Forecaster………David Schlotthauer
Youtube Video Chapters:
0:00 – Intro/Promotion
0:58 – Severe Weather Preparedness
3:02 – Latest Severe Weather Timings
10:05 – Severe Weather Recipe Monday/Tuesday
13:37 – A Look over and Skew-T Soundings
13:27 – Severe Weather Recipe Continued
21:35 – SPC Outlooks
25:00 – Outro/Promotion
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