Winter Million Festival: Winter Oaks runner guide and expert verdict to Lingfield feature on Saturday | Racing News

Senior analyst Jamie Lynch gives his verdict on every contender for Saturday’s showpiece at Lingfield Park, live on Sky Sports Racing.

A big pot is on offer for the talkSPORT Winter Oaks Fillies’ Handicap (2.47) at Lingfield on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing.

The field may be fewer in number than the inaugural running but looks better bolstered with fast-forward fillies who are still getting better.

Three of them are re-opposing from a course-and-distance handicap last month, the key form-line but not the only one, the alternative approaches by others making it quite the compelling contest, including the tactical conundrum.

Watch every race from the Winter Million at Lingfield Park live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Saturday January 21 and Sunday January 22.

Purple Ribbon

Jockey: Jack Mitchell; Trainer: Charlie Fellowes

What’s fast and slow at the same time? The scientific response is time dilation, but the artful answer is Purple Ribbon, whose career has been both slow and fast: slow because her five races have been spaced out across 17 months but fast in terms of her ratings rise, progressing plenty each time she comes to the track. None more so than on her latest appearance when she exceeded expectations to finish second against the boys in a Listed race at Kempton.

The question is: Does her recalibrated rating of 102 undersell what she did there? I think yes, as the form is strong, splitting Belloccio (undefeated on All-Weather) and Siskany (had contested a Group One the time before), while back in fourth was Berkshire Rocco who subsequently won a fast-track qualifier at Southwell.

This represents a drop back in trip as well as class, after her last two runs at a mile-and-a-half, and yes she’ll probably feel the pinch around here, especially if it’s a test of speed more than stamina as seems likely tactically. The bottom line is that she’s the class act in the line-up, more so than her rating of 102 accounts for.

Makinmedoit

Pierre-Louis Jamin; Harry Eustace

Age-old cliches become old-age cliches because they’re propped up by truth, and the adage of ‘horses for courses’ is illuminatingly illustrated by Makinmedoit, who has never been out of the first three around Lingfield, improving each time.

She’s nimble and nippy, and capable of especially fast finishes, all of which makes this track her perfect playground, her final two-furlong-splits the last twice coming in at just under then just over 22 seconds flat.

Such a rare rattle still got her only second last time because Al Agaila had it wrapped up by the time she got going (from much further back) in a slowly-run race, but Makinmedoit is 10lb better off here, also with lessons learned from how last time played out between them. It’s possible, if not probable, that she’ll be able to reverse the placings with Al Agaila.

Al Agaila

James Doyle; Simon & Ed Crisford

The Golden Compass, better known to the kids as His Dark Materials, was voted as the best book with the slowest first chapter, an inspiration to Al Agaila, whose first phase of her career gave little indication of the second-stage surge.

Following a four-month break, Al Agaila has been a revelation this winter, winning by four lengths at Kempton and two-and-a-half lengths at Lingfield, where she toyed with a field that included Makinmedoit and Tequilamockingbird.

She was better positioned than that pair as the race went, but that was just the process, and the power was evident as she barely came off the bridle.

An 11lb rise is a hefty hit, also without the element of surprise this time, a target on her back now, but there’s no cap on her potential from the way she did it last time – she’s entered in next month’s Winter Derby.

Morgan Fairy

Tom Marquand; William Haggas

Her development has been less dramatic and more stuttering than several in this field, but there’s still a sense of unfinished business about her, partly because of her top connections but also as she’s had just the one go so far at a mile-and-a-quarter.

Justifying favouritism on her comeback (a mile at Lingfield) was a scramble to say the least, in a mere 0-90, though the lack of pace had a hand in that, even a help in the sense she has been raised only 2lb, but the fact of the matter is that she has much better fillies to contend with here, and I’m not sure she has quite the talent nor the temperament to measure up to them.

At A Pinch

Theodore Ladd; Harry Eustace

Has been hurdling in recent times, and you have to go back to October 2021 for the last time she was on the Flat (for the Gosdens), when it took her six attempts to break her maiden.

Her first mark was 87, so some leeway has been given for her return to the level (80), but this company at this trip on this track is likely to be a shock to the system for her.

Tequilamockingbird

Luke Morris; Charlie Fellowes

Right alongside Makinmedoit when the pair were in the jetwash of Al Agaila last time, her only defeat in three starts at Lingfield, such course craft a plus point, albeit not the only one in here who scores highly in that regard.

She hardly got the rub of the green in that race, either, but it’s a stretch to say she was unlucky in any way, or that she’s going to progress past that pair.

She at least has some insider knowledge courtesy of Luke Morris, who rode Al Agaila last time but now makes way for James Doyle.

Aiming High

Hayley Turner; David Simcock

Represents last year’s winning connections (Lower Street), but Aiming High is lower in the handicap and higher in exposure.

A successful reappearance at Southwell was a lifetime best by her, but it was still just a 0-75, and there’s a feeling that she’s biting of more than she can chew here, on her first try at Lingfield: she has found 0-95s beyond her in the past, and this is a level above that.

The Flying Ginger

Franny Norton; Roger Fell

Faces a tall order from 6lb out of the handicap, emphasising that she’s out of her pay grade. Won’t play a part in the finish, but she is perhaps the pivotal horse in the race for determining the pace, the only one in the line-up with much history of front-running.

JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT:

You can see for yourself the ease with which Al Agaila won over this course and distance last time when making short work of two of re-opposing rivals, and any more improvement would make her irresistible to the rest, but 11lb is a harmful hike to even the highest rollers.

In terms of class at least she might meet her match in PURPLE RIBBON, who has to give her almost a stone in the handicap, but she’s worth that and more based on what she did at Kempton. If she copes with the drop back in trip, and I think she can, then Purple Ribbon will give Al Agaila all she can handle.

Watch every race from the Winter Million at Lingfield Park live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Saturday January 21 and Sunday January 22.